Outside the profile on five of seven. They match it on activity and head to head.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 3 August release. Down on bounty offered.Dashed is Arcade's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered5Bounty collected11Opponent network18LAN wins27Activity30Win rate14Head to head47
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. Arcade are 25th, 20 places outside.
<1%Arcade are 25th, 20 places outside the 5, 462 points behind DEPOChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
// Act two
How they got here
29 matches in Valve's six-month window, 12 won, across 9 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
17 Jul
HyperX & Intel Nationals 2026
Record1–2
Head to head+0.86
Still counts85%
These results are down to 85% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 Apr
DFRAG Open Series 4
Record0–2
Head to head-6.66
Still counts20%
These results are down to 20% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -6.66.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
10 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+1.22
Still counts20%
These results are down to 20% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
3 Apr – 7 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 3
Record2–2
Head to head-1.31
Still counts18%
These results are down to 18% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 Mar – 24 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 2
Record1–2
Head to head-1.23
Still counts8%
These results are down to 8% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
15 Mar – 16 Mar
ANZC Locals Autumn 2026
Record3–3
Head to head+0.64
Still counts4%
These results are down to 4% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 Mar – 13 Mar
Dfrag Season 1: Wildcard LAN
Record1–2
Head to head-0.27
Still counts1%
These results are down to 1% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Arcade that is 658.2 minus 5.7.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value658.2
+
Head to head−5.7
=
Points652
The head-to-head correction is 0.9% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.200median 0.355
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.219median 0.304
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.017median 0.077
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.107median 0.543
ArcadeMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 658.2; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Arcade: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.
None of the 29 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
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