← Race to the Major

BMZ

Asia-Pacific
0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1
fury5k · MagnumZ · me1o · rhittacrit · Wonderzce
Outside the profile on five of seven. They match it on head to head and beat it on win rate.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on five of seven since the 3 August release. Up on win rate and head to head.Dashed is BMZ's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered12 Bounty collected5 Opponent network4 LAN wins7 Activity1 Win rate98 Head to head60
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Asia-Pacific standing
31st
  1. 30Banzai
  2. 31BMZ
  3. 32MARKandLARRY
  4. 33Ding Cuts
26 places outside the Major
VRS points
602
World #292 · 512 behind DEPO
Since April
13th to 31st
Valve's standings
// Act one

The verdict

Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. BMZ are 31st, 26 places outside.

<1% BMZ are 31st, 26 places outside the 5, 512 points behind DEPO Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Asia-Pacific · 5 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1The MongolZ1,460
2TYLOO1,365
3Lynn Vision1,274
4FlyQuest1,150
5DEPO1,114
6THUNDER dOWNUNDER1,041
7Ground Zero919
85star867
9NEXVOID832
10Rare Atom815
31BMZ602
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
2The MongolZ1–3>99%
1TYLOO1–2>99%
3Lynn Vision3–598%
4FlyQuest3–595%
5DEPO3–680%
6THUNDER dOWNUNDER5–914%
8Ground Zero7–111%
75star6–89%
9NEXVOID7–111%
10Rare Atom7–121%
11BMZunranked–unranked<1%
BMZComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

5 matches in Valve's six-month window, 4 won, across 1 event. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

20 Mar – 27 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia - Cup 2
Record4–1
Head to head+4.20
Still counts10%

These results are down to 10% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L FengDaMar 27A loss -1.50
W FengDaMar 25Bounty collected #1Opponent network #4LAN wins #1 +1.56
W Just SwingMar 23Bounty collected #2Opponent network #1LAN wins #2 +1.58
W KaleidoMar 21Bounty collected #3Opponent network #2LAN wins #3 +1.37
W Vitalem AeremMar 20Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins #4 +1.19
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the 12 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For BMZ that is 598.2 plus 4.2.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value598.2
+
Head to head+4.2
=
Points602

The head-to-head correction is 0.7% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.233median 0.355
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.182median 0.304
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.002median 0.077
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.000median 0.543
BMZMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
The four factors0.233 + 0.182 + 0.002 + 0.000
Their average÷ 4 = 0.104
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.104 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 598.3
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 598.2; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

BMZ: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating

We have no Elo for BMZ: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.

The last 5 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W W W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 5 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.