← Race to the Major

SemperFi

Asia-Pacific
0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1
hazr · keen · SaVage · shadiy · sliimey
Outside the profile on five of seven. They match it on head to head and beat it on win rate.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on five of seven since the 3 August release. Up on activity and win rate.Dashed is SemperFi's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered14 Bounty collected23 Opponent network14 LAN wins23 Activity27 Win rate86 Head to head73
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Asia-Pacific standing
20th
  1. 18Abyssal
  2. 19Just Swing
  3. 20SemperFi
  4. 21Vitalem Aerem
  5. 22Chinggis Warriors
15 places outside the Major
VRS points
697
World #208 · 417 behind DEPO
Since April
6th to 20th
Valve's standings
// Act one

The verdict

Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. SemperFi are 20th, 15 places outside.

<1% SemperFi are 20th, 15 places outside the 5, 417 points behind DEPO Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Asia-Pacific · 5 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1The MongolZ1,460
2TYLOO1,365
3Lynn Vision1,274
4FlyQuest1,150
5DEPO1,114
6THUNDER dOWNUNDER1,041
7Ground Zero919
85star867
9NEXVOID832
10Rare Atom815
20SemperFi697
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
2The MongolZ1–3>99%
1TYLOO1–2>99%
3Lynn Vision3–598%
4FlyQuest3–595%
5DEPO3–680%
6THUNDER dOWNUNDER5–914%
8Ground Zero7–111%
75star6–89%
9NEXVOID7–111%
10Rare Atom7–121%
11SemperFi17–32<1%
SemperFiComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

25 matches in Valve's six-month window, 17 won, across 7 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

27 May – 28 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia-Pacific
Record1–1
Head to head+13.49
Still counts52%

These results are down to 52% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L TYLOOMay 28A loss -0.49
W THUNDER dOWNUNDERMay 27Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins +13.98
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 May – 13 May
Asian Champions League 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-1.85
Still counts42%

These results are down to 42% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L THUNDER dOWNUNDERMay 13A loss -1.70
L KaleidoMay 12A loss -5.72
W Change The GameMay 11Bounty collected #3Opponent network #6LAN wins #1 +5.57
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Apr – 3 Apr
GangKui Cup Season 2
Record1–2
Head to head+1.25
Still counts16%

These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Rare AtomApr 3A loss -2.58
L FlyQuestApr 1A loss -0.34
W TYLOOApr 1Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #2 +4.17
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 Mar – 28 Mar
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+2.77
Still counts11%

These results are down to 11% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Just SwingMar 28Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins +1.83
W XDMMar 27A win outside the ten best +0.94
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

21 Mar – 27 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 2
Record4–0
Head to head+6.07
Still counts10%

These results are down to 10% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W RoosterMar 27Bounty collected #5Opponent network #5LAN wins +1.98
W Ground ZeroMar 25Bounty collected #6Opponent network #4LAN wins +2.27
W RoosterMar 23Bounty collected #7Opponent network #7LAN wins +1.47
W Muttley CrewMar 21A win outside the ten best +0.35
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 6 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

15 Mar – 17 Mar
ANZC Locals Autumn 2026
Record4–2
Head to head+1.81
Still counts4%

These results are down to 4% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L THUNDER dOWNUNDERMar 17A loss -0.14
W ArcadeMar 16A win outside the ten best +0.53
L THUNDER dOWNUNDERMar 16A loss -0.14
W Ground ZeroMar 16Bounty collected #8Opponent network #8LAN wins #4 +0.85
W MindfreakMar 15Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #5 +0.31
W ArcadeMar 15Bounty collectedOpponent network #9LAN wins #6 +0.40
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

It holds 6 of the 29 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Mar – 15 Mar
Dfrag Season 1: Wildcard LAN
Record4–1
Head to head+0.80
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L THUNDER dOWNUNDERMar 15A loss -0.09
W THUNDER dOWNUNDERMar 13Bounty collected #9Opponent networkLAN wins #7 +0.41
W Ground ZeroMar 13Bounty collected #10Opponent network #10LAN wins #8 +0.35
W MindfreakMar 12Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +0.09
W SkeleMar 12Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #10 +0.04
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 7 of the 29 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 29 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For SemperFi that is 672.8 plus 24.4.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value672.8
+
Head to head+24.4
=
Points697

The head-to-head correction is 3.5% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.237median 0.355
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.248median 0.304
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.009median 0.077
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.079median 0.543
SemperFiMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
The four factors0.237 + 0.248 + 0.009 + 0.079
Their average÷ 4 = 0.143
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.143 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 672.5
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 672.8; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

SemperFi: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating

We have no Elo for SemperFi: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.

The last 25 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W W W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L L W L L W L
Every match by opponent strength

2 of the 25 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 4.2 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.