← Race to the Major

For Fun

Americas
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
jsfeltner · mason · Momo · Shooter · Wilky
Outside the profile on five of seven. They match it on win rate and head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered15 Bounty collected13 Opponent network15 LAN wins49 Activity1 Win rate55 Head to head63
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
26th
  1. 24Keyd Stars
  2. 25Isurus
  3. 26For Fun
  4. 27Passion UA
  5. 28Without a Roof
17 places outside the Major
VRS points
807
World #147 · 360 behind NRG
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. For Fun are 26th, 17 places outside.

<1% For Fun are 26th, 17 places outside the 9, 360 points behind NRG Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Legacy1,783
2FURIA1,754
39z1,606
4Liquid1,465
5MIBR1,408
6DENDELE1,301
7M801,270
8paiN1,268
9NRG1,167
10Wildcard1,135
11Imperial1,085
12SportsBetExpert1,075
13Fluxo1,065
14Galorys1,006
26For Fun807
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Legacy1–2>99%
2FURIA1–2>99%
39z3–5>99%
5Liquid3–6>99%
4MIBR4–5>99%
9DENDELE7–1254%
6M804–6>99%
11paiN8–1420%
7NRG7–1271%
12Wildcard8–1620%
8Imperial7–1261%
13SportsBetExpert8–1719%
10Fluxo9–1518%
14Galorys13–18<1%
15For Fun25–41<1%
For FunComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Imperial comes up into the 9, paiN falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

5 matches in Valve's six-month window, 3 won, across 1 event. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

29 Aug – 30 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record3–2
Head to head+12.58
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertAug 30A loss -5.49
W Wanted GoonsAug 30Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins #1 +9.45
W regainAug 30Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #2 +14.79
W KodexAug 29Bounty collected #3Opponent network #3LAN wins #3 +3.17
L LAGAug 29A loss -9.34
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the 9 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For For Fun that is 794.7 plus 12.6.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value794.7
+
Head to head+12.6
=
Points807

The head-to-head correction is 1.6% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.259median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.221median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.013median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.337median 0.708
For FunMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.259 + 0.221 + 0.013 + 0.337
Their average÷ 4 = 0.208
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.208 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 794.8
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 794.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

For Fun: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating

We have no Elo for For Fun: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.

The last 5 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L W W W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 5 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.