Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on opponent network, win rate and head to head and beat it on activity.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 3 August release. Down on win rate and head to head.Dashed is Keyd Stars's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered35Bounty collected47Opponent network52LAN wins16Activity95Win rate37Head to head75
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. Keyd Stars are 24th, 15 places outside.
<1%Keyd Stars are 24th, 15 places outside the 9, 344 points behind NRGChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 2 more events before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
62 matches in Valve's six-month window, 34 won, across 17 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -24.36.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Aug – 27 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 1
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+4.93
Still counts97%
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Jul – 25 Jul
CCT South America 2026 Series 4
Record1–1
Head to head+4.97
Still counts91%
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
15 Jul – 17 Jul
BetBoom RUSH B! Summit 2026: Part Four
Record0–2
Head to head-16.01
Still counts85%
These results are down to 85% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -16.01.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
8 Jul – 12 Jul
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: South American Series 2
Record3–1
Head to head+26.86
Still counts82%
These results are down to 82% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
6 Jul – 8 Jul
CCT South America 2026 Series 3
Record1–1
Head to head-1.42
Still counts79%
These results are down to 79% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.42.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Jun – 27 Jun
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: South American Series 1
Record2–2
Head to head+7.22
Still counts72%
These results are down to 72% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 May – 24 May
CCT South America 2026 Series 2
Record2–1
Head to head+4.92
Still counts49%
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBounty HuntersMay 24A loss-5.11
WpaiN AcademyMay 23A win outside the ten best+4.96
WMETANOIA WolvesMay 22A win outside the ten best+5.07
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +4.92.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 May – 23 May
BetBoom Storm 3
Record4–2
Head to head+13.97
Still counts49%
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
29 Apr – 8 May
CCT South America 2026 Series 1
Record3–1
Head to head+5.14
Still counts38%
These results are down to 38% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBounty HuntersMay 8A loss-3.55
WpaiN AcademyMay 3A win outside the ten best+3.65
WR2May 1A win outside the ten best+1.64
WBESTIA AcademyApr 29A win outside the ten best+3.40
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +5.14.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Apr – 3 May
Odyssey Cup Brazil 2026
Record2–3
Head to head-4.30
Still counts35%
These results are down to 35% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LUNO MILLEMay 3A loss-6.05
WMIBR AcademyMay 2A win outside the ten best+3.87
LTurma do PagodeApr 25A loss-5.30
LFluxoApr 24A loss-0.85
WFake do BiruApr 24A win outside the ten best+4.03
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.30.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
26 Apr – 29 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: South America - Cup 4
Record2–2
Head to head+7.37
Still counts33%
These results are down to 33% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBounty HuntersApr 29A loss-3.08
WTurma do PagodeApr 28A win outside the ten best+4.38
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 Apr – 24 Apr
BetBoom RUSH B! Summit 2026: Part Three
Record1–2
Head to head-3.56
Still counts29%
These results are down to 29% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
26 Mar – 9 Apr
BetBoom Storm 2
Record5–2
Head to head+2.02
Still counts19%
These results are down to 19% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
7 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +2.02.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
31 Mar – 2 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: South American Qualifier
Record2–2
Head to head-0.78
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.78.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Keyd Stars that is 794.6 plus 28.7.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value794.6
+
Head to head+28.7
=
Points823
The head-to-head correction is 3.5% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.336median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.320median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.142median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.032median 0.708
Keyd StarsMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 794.6; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Keyd Stars: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.
1 of the 62 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 0.0 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Chicken Coop
ODDIK
Keyd Stars
Isurus
