Outside the profile on four of seven. They match it on opponent network and beat it on win rate and head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 3 August release. Down on win rate.Dashed is ODDIK's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered28Bounty collected41Opponent network54LAN wins7Activity20Win rate91Head to head91
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. ODDIK are 23rd, 14 places outside.
<1%ODDIK are 23rd, 14 places outside the 9, 331 points behind NRGChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
17 matches in Valve's six-month window, 12 won, across 3 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Aug – 28 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 1
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
14 Jul – 26 Jul
CCT South America 2026 Series 4
Record6–2
Head to head+45.81
Still counts91%
8 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 14 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For ODDIK that is 765.4 plus 70.5.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value765.4
+
Head to head+70.5
=
Points836
The head-to-head correction is 8.4% of the total.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.318median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.299median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.151median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.000median 0.708
ODDIKMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 765.4; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
ODDIK: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 17 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WWLWWWWLWWLWWLWWL
Every match by opponent strength
ex-MIBR Academy #171 −20.5LP #101 +20.5+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200ODDIK #131Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
None of the 17 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Bounty Hunters
Chicken Coop
ODDIK
Keyd Stars
Isurus
